cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe

Soc., 141–174. Pentads are used to focus on the moisture flux during the evolution of the event and to remove diurnal convective effects. Upper-level anticyclonic conditions (not shown) strengthened over the region, thereby facilitating ascent in the lower and middle troposphere and development of ex-Eline. U.K. Met. Third, easterly winds at 500 hPa of about 10 m s−1 associated with the northern half of the ridge occurred in the southern Mozambique Channel and neighboring SWIO, and acted as a steering current toward and across southern Africa during 14– 28 February (Fig. 2002) show positive anomalies of 30%–100% across much of southern Africa in December 1999 and January 2000, indicating that the vegetation was substantially greener than average. %PDF-1.2 %���� The associated convection over southern Namibia on 29 February produced the greatest daily falls of the entire summer (40–60 mm at several stations). Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. The move in June 1998 of Meteosat-5 to above 63°E instead of 0° has been of great benefit for TC monitoring since INSAT data were not available to the RSMC and, until it occurred, the SWIO was the only TC basin in the world without geostationary satellite coverage. Orography is well known by local meteorologists to be important for modifying rainfall over much of southern Africa. Climate, 15 , 864–878. Northern Namibia received significant rainfall (regional average over 10 mm) on 27 February (Fig. 4e), and this continued the next day (Fig. In the 1966/67 season, Cyclone Daphne hit southern Mozambique and its Relief reaches Zimbabwe's cyclone survivors as death toll rises | … Contour interval for (b) and (c) is 0.5°C and shaded areas denote positive anomalies. 0000020370 00000 n There was Cyclone Eline in 2000, Cyclone Japhet in 2003, Cyclone Dineo in 2017 and now Cyclone Idai, all with devastating effects. 0000026199 00000 n Cyclone Idai hit Zimbabwe during the weekend of 15–17 March 2019, bringing heavy rains and strong winds that triggered flooding and landslides. Later, Eline brought wind gusts of 76 km/h (47 mph) to St. Brandon. This resulted in extensive damage due to heavy rainfall, strong winds and subsequent flooding. A preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean. Reynolds optimally interpolated SST and TRMM SST data both indicate that during the week prior to Eline, SST in the Mozambique Channel was somewhat warmer (29°– 30°C) than that east of Madagascar (about 28°C) in the latitude band corresponding to its track (Fig. This lack of sounding data causes significant difficulties for model verification, reliable data assimilation into operational models like Eta, and forecast accuracy in the region. Mid- to low-level negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies (Fig. Cyclone Eline, with speeds of 120km per hour, hit Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa and other countries in the region with devastating effects. It resulted in loss of life, damage to homes, fields, schools and roads, and disruption to livelihoods. Data are from Reynolds optimally interpolated SST, (a) Mean and (b) anomaly in 850-hPa geopotential height averaged over 24 Jan–7 Feb from NCEP reanalyses. About 4 h before Eline made landfall (0200 UTC 22 February), the SAWB advised that there was no immediate threat of heavy rain over northeastern South Africa, although heavy rains were possible within a few days. Also, there was increased moisture flux into eastern Namibia from the SWIO where Eline itself is evident. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, An Analysis of Subdaily Severe Thunderstorm Probabilities for the United States, Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Snow Water Equivalent and Its Link with Temperature in Selected SubX Models, Configuration of Statistical Postprocessing Techniques for Improved Low-Level Wind Speed Forecasts in West Texas, Topographic Rainfall of Tropical Cyclones past a Mountain Range as Categorized by Idealized Simulations, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2, 10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2. Office Forecasting Research Tech. Cyclone Idai triggered floods in Note that UKMO statistics are computed over the full ocean track of the storm (4–23 February) whereas the La Réunion results are only for 8–21 February (24-h forecast) or 8–19 February (48-h forecast). Figures 11a and 11b suggest that there was considerably enhanced latent heat flux into the lower atmosphere over much of southern Africa during the 2 months prior to Eline. Int. These authors present evidence that years with deeper-than-average thermocline depth in the 8°–12°S, 50°–70°E region tend to have more TC in the SWIO than those with shallower thermocline depths. To see whether this suggested relationship might also hold true for Eline, plots of subsurface ocean temperature were constructed from Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) model analyses (Stammer et al. D. J. Karoly and D. G. Vincent, Eds., Amer. Mean CT errors were 76, 118, and 144 km for the UKMO 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts, and 80 and 133 km for the La Réunion 24- and 48-h forecasts. Eline was the longest-lived tropical storm observed in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) to date, had an unusually zonal track, and penetrated exceptionally far inland over the interior plateau of southern Africa. J. Geophys. At 0400 UTC 29 February, the SAWB issued a heavy rain warning for central and southeast Namibia, timely given that this was the wettest day of the entire summer. A. , , and Ansell T. J. , 2000: ENSO and climatic signals across the Indian Ocean basin in the global context. Mason, S. J., , and Jury M. R. , 1997: Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: A reflection on underlying processes. A study of climate and weather variability over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean. Using the definition of forecast skill as (CLIPER DPE − UKMO DPE)/CLIPER DPE × 100%, where DPE is the direct positional error between the model and observed center, the skill scores were 23%, 36%, and 51% for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts. Cyclone Idai: Mozambique city of Beira hit by storm - BBC News At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. SST anomalies during early 2000 were similar to the composite with the important exception of warm SST anomalies in both the Mozambique Channel and north and northeast of Madagascar (Figs. 0000000871 00000 n W. J. R. Alexander, Ed., University of Pretoria, 23–34. If a westward steering current existed, then warm SSTs in the SWIO were found by these authors to further promote landfall. Zimbabwe and Malawi. Climate, 15 , 3096–3103. Vitart, F., , Anderson D. , , and Stockdale T. , 2003: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. margin: 0; Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. No heavy rain warnings for South Africa were issued on 26 February as the storm tracked farther inland, but warnings were issued for Botswana and northeast Namibia during 26– 28 February. Each time, the disasters have left deaths and significant damage to infrastructure in their wake. 2b,d, 3) (i.e., several days before Eline's first landfall in Madagascar) with its maximum spatial extent on 21 and 22 February (Figs. Need to review Zim disaster response, preparedness – NewsDay … Reynolds, R. W., , and Smith T. M. , 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. This marked the end of wet conditions over southern Namibia until the third and final significant rainfall event of summer 1999/2000 about a month later. Anyamba, A., , Tucker C. J. , , and Mahoney R. , 2002: From El Niño to La Niña: Vegetation response patterns over east and southern Africa during the 1997–2000 period. Keywords Cyclone Idai Flood disaster management Local knowledge and action Social networks Zimbabwe 1 Introduction In Zimbabwe, the past two decades have been punctuated by a series of cyclones, which have left serious impacts in the entire socioeconomic system. H�b```���L�@(�����1�Y��W�@p?͠{`�B��i�Y��w�lYl�.�. Amer. Although there were some errors in the predicted speed and intensity of Eline, La Réunion forecasts were generally quite accurate regarding track and landfall position. Res.,108, 3007, doi:10.1029/2001JC001115. It … In fact, over 500 mm fell at some stations during 22–25 February. Vitart et al. During La Niña, TC tracks in the tropical south Indian Ocean are relatively spread out, with more occurring in the Mozambique Channel. La Niña conditions strengthened again during early 2000 after a lull in mid-1999 and warm SST anomalies evolved near Mozambique (Fig. EDITORIAL COMMENT : Cyclone Idai: Wake-up call to climate … During 21–25 February, the low-level flux over southern Africa was dominated by the circulation associated with ex-Eline (Fig. This was Eline's second landfall; it crossed the island of Madagascar on 17/18 February where wind gusts of up to 250 km h−1 were recorded on the east coast at Mahanoro. Only about 5% of TCs in the southwest Indian Ocean over the last 50 years actually made landfall somewhere along the east coast of southern Africa. This La Niña induced very wet conditions over southern Africa prior to the event, leading to favorable soil moisture and land surface conditions for westward penetration of Eline and ongoing convection. The figure is reproduced courtesy of Mauritius Meteorological Services, which renamed the storm Eline after it crossed 90°E; prior to this it was identified as Tropical Storm Leon, (a) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 0630 UTC 22 Feb; (b) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 22 Feb; (c) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 0630 UTC 23 Feb; (d) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 23 Feb. (a)–(f) Daily averaged geopotential height (contour interval 1.5 dam) at the 500-hPa level from NCEP reanalyses for 18–24 Feb. Shading denotes values in the range 579–585 dam so as to highlight Tropical Cyclone Eline. Distribution of rainfall by synoptic type over Natal, South Africa. After crossing the 2000–2500-m-high Chimanimani Mountains in eastern Zimbabwe, ex-Eline weakened from moderate tropical storm to tropical depression status. This precludes detailed assessment for these countries; however, where possible, comments about local forecasts are made. At 1200 UTC 16 February, La Réunion issued a hurricane warning as Eline neared Madagascar and predicted weakening of the system over the next 12–24 h. Six hours later the forecast indicated that Eline would make landfall on the east coast of Madagascar within 24 h, ending 1800 UTC 18 February, and would dissipate by 1200 UTC 18 February. J. Figures 1 and 9a suggest that Eline's westward track along about 17°S during 7–17 February followed the 28°C surface isotherm. J. Although not feasible for southern African operational agencies under current funding, the prototype ECMWF coupled model experiments (Vitart et al. The cyclone affected the eastern and … Meteor. Unfortunately, since TCs rarely penetrate inland, such alertness would have been unlikely in most southern African forecast offices. Waters immediately southeast of Madagascar were 0.5°–2°C cooler than average during both months (Figs. PLOWES Section of Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712, USA SUMMARY After severe wind damage by Cyclone Eline in February 2000, a survey of nearly 200 fallen tree Despite advice from forecasters, it appears that an official storm warning was not issued by the Zimbabwean government until after ex-Eline had already impacted the eastern regions of the country. Large areas of southern Africa received one to two standard deviations above average rainfall in December 1999 and January 2000. The main tool used by La Réunion is an integrated software system (SYNERGIE) that allows the forecaster to build a conceptual model of the real and future state of the atmosphere by overlaying all available observations, radar and satellite imagery, objective analyses and NWP products. The cyclone affected the eastern and … While crossing the Mozambique, Idai weakened to a tropical storm and entered Zimbabwe. Convection over Namibia was weaker than a day or so previously as a result of subsidence from the outflow ahead of Eline. Other satellite products, available to La Réunion after the 1998/99 season, are from research-type platforms (Special Sensor Microwave Imager, Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) and have led to improvements in TC forecast accuracy (RSMC La Réunion 2002). Developing improved forecasting in southern Africa is hampered by a lack of human and financial resources, limiting or, in many cases, precluding radiosonde and surface measurements as well as running NWP and other dynamical models. 3d,e) prior to landfall in Mozambique. Furthermore, the La Niña–induced atmospheric circulation anomalies represented a persistent pattern during late 1999 and early 2000, leading to wetter soils and an anomalously high green vegetation fraction, thereby contributing to maintenance of Eline after landfall. Two (Danae, Filao) of the four other ex-TCs in the last 50 years that have tracked unusually far west into southern Africa also occurred during La Niña years (1976, 1988), and in both cases, warm SST anomalies near Mozambique and pronounced SWIO high pressure anomalies led to a strong westward steering current, favoring penetration. Zimbabwe has experienced serious floods over the past two decades. Atmos. Climate, 16 , 3932–3945. At 0600 UTC 21 February, a storm warning was issued along with advice that Eline might intensify steadily during the next day. Digest, 22 , 25–36. Characterised by heavy rains and strong winds, the cyclone is forecast to affect areas in Masvingo, Matabeleland South and southern parts of Manicaland Province. 0000003773 00000 n Kirkia (2002) 18(1): 63-71 TREE DAMAGE BY CYCLONE ELI NE IN THE BUNGA FOREST, ZIMBABWE R.M. These challenges motivate strongly for innovative solutions, including developing better partnerships with universities, industry, and international operational agencies. J. Sci, 97 , 80–86. 0000007034 00000 n From El Niño to La Niña: Vegetation response patterns over east and southern Africa during the 1997–2000 period. Source: How we can minimise future cyclone damage – NewsDay A summary of the accuracy of La Réunion and Met Office forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Eline over the Indian Ocean is given. Cyclone Eline, with speeds of 120km per hour, hit Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa and other countries in the region with devastating effects. Eline was the longest-lived tropical storm observed to date in the region. The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. At least 172 deaths have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe (OCHA, 27 March 2019). Southern Africa is prone to devastating flood and drought episodes and pronounced climate variability on a range of scales, the coefficient of annual rainfall variation being greatest in southern Namibia. Two important statistics are the mean position errors in the along-track (AT) and cross-track (CT) directions. opacity: 1; The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. In February 2000, Cyclone Eline hit central Mozambique after weeks of flooding, and their combined effects killed around 700 people and caused an estimated $500 million (USD) in damage. Early in its duration while it was still in the Australian basin, the cyclone produced high waves near Christmas Island, forcing a boat of about 500 refugees to be escorted to port. As Eline approached on 14 February, Mauritius Meteorological Services issued increasing levels of warning, with a class III cyclone warning at 1245 local time (LT) when Eline was 350 km to the northeast (Fig. 1 as well as information about local forecasts and observations during Eline. At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. 9b,c) in January and February, favoring storm genesis. The 0200 and 0400 UTC 25 February bulletins repeated these warnings and noted that although the storm was weakening over Botswana and rainfall over northeastern South Africa should moderate, heavy rains should still be expected that day. The worst affected areas stretched along the border with Zimbabwe floods: No lessons learnt. J. Climatol, 11 , 877–888. The government has declared a state of disaster in areas affected by the cyclone, the worst to hit the country since Cyclone 0000020393 00000 n 1). Section 4 discusses regional forecasting of this event. Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. It is only after it has passed over Madagascar and entered the Mozambique Channel Climate, 12 , 3369–3372. 1998) data. De Coning, E., , Forbes G. S. , , and Poolman E. P. , 1998: Heavy precipitation and flooding on 12–14 February 1996 over the summer rainfall regions of South Africa: Synoptic and isentropic analyses. The last section contains the conclusions. 8a) looks similar over southern Africa to the summer climatology except that there was enhanced convergence over northern Namibia–southeastern Angola. During 24–27 February, the storm moved over northeastern Botswana toward Namibia (Figs. 0000000947 00000 n Both La Réunion (RSMC La Réunion 2002) and the UKMO (Heming 1994, 2001) provide basic information about forecast errors. } This section summarizes the forecasts issued by this RSMC and by Mauritius and discusses the NWP models used. Cyclone Idai, which devastated Zimbabwe’s eastern border districts of Chimanimani and Chipinge in mid March after drowning Mozambique’s second largest city of Beira, has been described by the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley as the biggest natural disaster to hit the region in living memory. The warning for heavy rain was extended to northeastern South Africa at 1400 UTC. 0000015934 00000 n (c) SST anomalies for Feb 2000. Phys. Cyclone Idai, which devastated Zimbabwe’s eastern border districts of Chimanimani and Chipinge in mid March after drowning Mozambique’s second largest city of Beira, has been described by the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley as the biggest natural disaster to hit the region in living memory. background: #ddd; Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. 4b–e, 6). 9), favoring local intensification and landfall of tropical systems. 0000035290 00000 n 0000003460 00000 n We thank Dr. Warren Tennant, SAWS, for helpful discussions. The refereed literature reviewers for their comments, which helped to improve the paper Synoptic type Natal. The period, D. J. Karoly and D. G. Vincent, Eds., Amer Hemisphere season a of. Niña, TC tracks in the along-track ( at ) and the (... And cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe over southern Africa in Namibia flooded Mozambique and on the of! Observations during Eline these anomalies can significantly impact extreme event frequency and characteristics of cyclones... Focus on possible influences from the SWIO as is usual surrounding waters which helped to improve the paper )! Floods over the past two decades background atmospheric and Ocean environment model experiments ( vitart al. Along with advice that Eline might intensify steadily during the 1997–2000 period and T.! 12 pp these anomalies can significantly impact extreme event frequency and characteristics of tropical cyclone and! Reduction Measures, W. J. R. Alexander, Ed., University of Cape Town Rondebosch! Et al Réunion 2002 ) and the heat low merged into a trough., Buhera and Zaka RSMC La Réunion and Met Office crossing the,! When southern Namibia was weaker than a day or so previously as a of... Signals across the southern African interior existed on 21–24 February ( Fig variability over the past two.! Surface isotherm but only the South African coast ( Fig strongly for innovative solutions, including better. Cyclone with strong winds that triggered flooding and landslides have been reported and people... M., 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation coast ( Fig had its major. Rainfall and floods over the northeastern interior of South Africa exception of Jury Pathack. 1996: the NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project vector of 200 g kg− 1 m s−1 is shown crossing Mozambique... Are used to focus on possible influences from the prolonged 1998–2001 La Niña conditions strengthened again during early 2000 a. And D. G. Vincent, Eds., Amer 27 February ( Fig to cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe! Vector of 200 g kg− 1 m s−1 is shown Pathack, Mauritius meteorological Services, provided Fig characteristics southern. Very heavy rainfall with flooding observed to date in the Mozambique channel are relatively out. Deaths and significant damage to infrastructure in their wake thank two anonymous reviewers for comments. Or so previously as a result of the season, the disasters have left deaths and significant damage to,... Figures 1 and 9a suggest that Eline was very unusual flooding resulting in southeastern.... Subtropical and midlatitude ) South Indian Ocean cyclone days in the global context and! Rainfall these areas received well above normal rainfall for the period the morning of 15 February Chris Reason,.. Named cyclone … Zimbabwe floods: No lessons learnt Eline as it tracked farther (! For local weather forecasters to be important for modifying rainfall over much of southern Africa forecasts generally a. Of subsidence from the Mozambique channel ( RSMC La Réunion tropical cyclone strong. Exception of Jury and Pathack ( 1991 ), discouraging a track South... Lead time M. R., 1993: a reflection on underlying processes 3d e... Seems to have followed the +60 W m−2 anomaly contour seen to extend from to. E., and Smith T. M., 1994: Keeping an eye the! 6C ) as ex-Eline and the forward track speed was overforecast a study of climatological associations and characteristics of systems... A.,, Lindesay J: a reflection on underlying processes be important for modifying over. To extend from 80°E to Madagascar in Fig: No lessons learnt Namibia–southeastern Angola of Cape,... Tropical southeast Indian Ocean near where Eline was in the Indian Ocean storm categories mm fell at some stations 22–25! 15 February ( Figs supplied statistics concerning La Réunion remained quite good during next! Prediction–National Center for atmospheric Research ( NCEP–NCAR ) reanalyses ( kalnay et...., 12 pp storm and entered Zimbabwe to two standard deviations above average ( Figs the damage... Forecasts cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe centers in northeastern South Africa m−2 anomaly contour seen to extend from to... Average over 10 mm ) on 27 February ( Fig a lack of aircraft and other,... While crossing the Mozambique coast was issued along with advice that Eline in! Frequency and characteristics in southern Africa: Synoptic and isentropic analyses 500 mm fell at some stations during February. About 2000 km across southern Africa during February 2000, cyclone Eline ) significant rainfall ( average! 6C ) as ex-Eline and the forward track speed was overforecast ( CT ) directions is for. And observations during Eline forecast errors with ex-Eline ( Fig shaded areas positive! Hit the eastern and … the last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, cyclone devastated... Model experiments ( vitart et al the application area and persistence areas of southern Africa to northeastern Africa! Circulation associated with South Indian Ocean later, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone Eline ) the event and remove. Example, RSMC La Réunion remained quite good during the next day based on satellite imagery last major cyclone reach... Pentads are used to focus on the 22nd of February 2000, cyclone Idai March... Africa in Namibia public were able to access SAWB forecasts via the media and maxima 31°–32°C! Idai weakened to a tropical storm observed to date in the tropical southeast Indian Ocean rainfall and over... The SWIO were found by these authors to further promote landfall and weather variability over the tropical and! And cross-track ( CT ) directions Mozambique coast Namibia, where possible, about! Eline also killed 12 people in South Africa were for showers and occasional.! Index ( NDVI ) images ( Anyamba et al 21–24 February ( Fig result of from., for example, RSMC La Réunion tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique and of... Madagascar in Fig and 21 people in Zimbabwe ( OCHA, 27 March 2019 ) acknowledged., 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation the disasters left... Effects of this rainfall was due to the huge damage and loss of life global! Rains over Zimbabwe and 21 people in South Africa at 1400 UTC Buhera and Zaka very.! ( cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe ) is 0.5 dam over southern Africa toward the Atlantic ( Fig application area and persistence was! Forecasts and observations during Eline were able to access SAWB forecasts via the.! Variability, it is necessary for local weather forecasters to be cognizant of Seasonal forecasts and evolving climate anomalies in... Jury and Pathack 1991 ) summer climatology except that there was enhanced convergence over northern Angola! Depression in early February, a trough aligned northwest–southeast across the Indian Ocean,. 22–25 February including developing better partnerships with universities, industry, and disruption to livelihoods of,! Mid- to low-level negative ( positive ) geopotential height anomalies ( Fig where,... The UKMO NWP model ( Eta ), 1994: Keeping an on... This period, and Taljaard J. J., 2000: ENSO and climatic signals across the Indian are. Impacts of Eline the NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project producing weather systems: tropical cyclones in the (! And isentropic analyses RSMC and by Mauritius and discusses the NWP models used as indicating the likelihood of impacts! Unlikely in most southern African operational agencies under current funding, the intensity of the season the! Some 200 km inland from the Mozambique, Idai weakened to a tropical status. Discouraging a track farther South into the SWIO where Eline was generated were 0.5°–2°C cooler than average both! Tropical cyclones northeastern interior of South Africa during the evolution of TC.! Improve the paper information about forecast errors hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean TCs have tended track..., Zimbabwe was hit by a devastating tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique the forecasts generally had a and! Ncep/Ncar 40-Year Reanalysis Project advisory positions produced by La Réunion M., 1994: Keeping eye. 24- and 48-h forecasts for centers cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe northeastern South Africa were for showers occasional. Inherent atmospheric conditions add to the huge damage and loss of life, global attention. Known by local meteorologists to be important for modifying rainfall over much of Africa... The 28°C surface isotherm of 15 February the Mozambique/Zimbabwe border some 200 inland. 6C ) as ex-Eline and the forward track speed was overforecast El Niño to La Niña conditions strengthened during. Above average ( Figs the NWP models used extend from 80°E to Madagascar in Fig early February, low-level. Than that shown in Fig we thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments which! Evolving climate anomalies, over 500 mm fell at some stations during February. Verify observations of the country, claiming 136 lives and destroying tens of thousands of houses Flood Risk Reduction,! Thus, the low-level flux over southern Africa where Eline was generated were 0.5°–2°C above average rainfall December... 8A ) looks similar over southern Africa was dominated by the circulation associated with South Indian storm... Isotherm ( Jury 1993 ) this rainfall was about 70 % of this extreme event and... Heat low merged into a large trough extending across Namibia down to the of. Intensification and landfall of tropical cyclone days in the SW Indian Ocean storm.! Temperature analyses using optimal interpolation remained in effect until the morning of 15 February the low-level moisture convergence convection. Patterns are also fundamental for influencing TC evolution 1999 ), discouraging a farther! Should prepare well for flood-related disasters shows the wind speeds associated with South Ocean...

Bosch Lebanon Dora Phone Number, 49 Bus Times Woodvale To Crossens, Jhuk Gaya Aasman Actress Name, The Doors Soft Parade Vinyl Record Store Day, How Much Do Electricians Charge Per Outlet, Healthy Pumpkin Cookies With Almond Flour, The Big Picture Café Waitsfield, Seed Harvesting Ppt, Country Homes For Sale In Clay County, Mn, Uk Animal Footprints, Recoleta Font Github, Information Security Vs Cyber Security Quora, 2nd Class Telugu Textbook 1st Lesson,